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By 2060 3d printing will make up half of manufactured goods Cut global trade by 25%

The Dutch bank and financial services company (ING) released a report a few days ago that 3D printing could "destroy" nearly a quarter of world trade by 2060. The report predicts that 3D printing partially eliminates the need for imports and exports, leading to a reduction in cross-border trade.

Does the rise of 3D printing mark the end of cross-border trade? This is a central issue for ING's new report. "3D printing: a threat to global trade!" Will also be a big problem for a long time to come.

ING is a renowned bank whose financial and business services cover many areas of interest to investors, commercial bankers and other clients.

As a warning of global trade and as an encouragement to the 3D printing industry, this report brings some very interesting new ideas to business people and readers.

The report predicts that 25% of world trade could be "destroyed" by 3D printing within four years.

ING predicts that companies such as automotive, industrial machinery and consumer products will move to localized 3D printing production methods to reduce the need for cross-border trade. The report explains that the automotive, industrial machinery and consumer products industries are "top tier 3D printers and big players in world trade."

Even more alarming is ING's report that the impact of additive manufacturing on trade is almost negligible at this time because many companies are just beginning to gain a foothold in 3D printing but do not forget that additive manufacturing is already a 6 billion The dollar's global industry.

Whether 3D printing can "catch up" with the traditional manufacturing industry by 2040 or 2060 depends on some variables

ING said that 3D printing technology will soon become a stepping stone for the development of various industries.

According to data analysis, additive manufacturing may account for half of global manufacturing in just 20 years, with conservative estimates up to 40 years.

The report said: "To determine the exact potential of 3D printing is very difficult, but some experts predict that in the next 20 years, manufacturing share will reach 50%." "Preliminary calculations show that if the current 3D printer investment continues to grow, 50% of the finished product will be 3D printed in 2060 ... This figure may be realized as early as 2040, if the investment doubled every five years."

It is hard to imagine that half the manufactured goods in a world are made with 3D printers, but what is even more difficult to imagine is how this will affect certain industries, countries and specific companies?

For the United States, which has given enough attention to the entire report, the advent of an additive manufacturing era seems to be a positive sign. ING reports that local 3D printing of automotive components will increase job opportunities in the U.S. auto plant. Good news for Chrysler, Ford and even high-tech carmakers like Tesla, and good news for ordinary workers who have been unemployed in recent years.

However, for international companies and sectors engaged in U.S. trade, additive manufacturing may have negative consequences. In the automobile industry, Mexico, Japan, Germany and Canada both have significant bilateral trade with the United States. This negative consequence is most likely due to the increased production of localized 3D printing.

3D printing will have a huge impact on global auto trade and the United States will therefore reduce its trade deficit

China will suffer heavy losses in the machinery industry and consumer goods markets, and Asian countries are "major producers" of these commodities, many of which are sent to the United States. The cumulative effect of these changing trade relations may eventually reduce the U.S. trade deficit.

"Most importantly, the 3D printing industry will reduce the trade deficit with the United States, Mexico and Germany (cars) and China (machinery and consumer products)." The report notes that "the manufacturing surplus will reduce their surpluses, especially if They currently export many products that will be 3D-printable in the near future. "

The report provides the following conclusion: "Once 3D printing is widely available and economically viable in large-scale production, it will use 3D printers to drive local production at the expense of import costs." At present, One step, but not sure when and to what extent high-speed / mass production of 3D printers is viable in all industries? "

So, 3D printing is really a "threat" to global trade, but you can also see it as a godsend for localized production. Obviously, this is not good for both the largest importer and the largest exporter, and only hope that the additive manufacturing industry can provide enough work to make up for some of the losses.

Interestingly, if ING's prediction is correct, the United States may not be the biggest winner.

Although this report does not mention this point, reducing cross-border trade is a huge boost to the environment. Large-scale additive manufacturing does require significant amounts of electricity, but global shipping will also decrease, potentially having a significant impact on reducing global carbon emissions. But this is another report.